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According to the simulation, Vance is the clear favorite for the GOP nomination, with a 46 percent chance of becoming the party’s standard-bearer. Rubio follows with an 18 percent chance.
Grok’s simulation begins by defining “solid” states as those with a margin of 15 points or more. Vance’s solid column includes the following states: Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, most of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Ohio.