After accounting for solid states, Vance leads with 139 electoral votes to 108. Additionally, the “likely” category, which contains margins between 5 and 15 points, further enhances his advantage.
He is projected to win in Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Alaska, and Maine’s second district. Florida and Texas are viewed as firmly Republican due to recent gains by the party, while Arizona, which was narrowly won by Trump in 2024, is expected to remain in Republican hands. With these solidly Republican and likely states counted, Vance would secure 246 electoral votes, leaving him just 24 votes short of the 270 needed to win.
