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Tehran views itself on “death ground,” per former NATO assessments, potentially prompting “go big” retaliation: beyond Hormuz, cyberattacks, terrorism against U.S. interests, or strikes on neighbors’ oil facilities. Yet self-preservation tempers action—Iran’s economy relies on oil exports, and full closure invites devastating U.S. counterforce.
As of late February 28, 2026, the strait sees reduced but not zero traffic; some vessels transit cautiously, while others pile up waiting. No confirmed military interdictions or attacks on ships yet, but the psychological effect is profounThe world watches anxiously: will this remain asymmetric harassment, or spiral into open naval confrontation?
