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The immediate market reaction underscores the gravity. Oil markets were closed Saturday (weekend), but Brent crude settled Friday at around $72 per barrel after weeks of risk premiums. Analysts anticipate sharp spikes when trading resumes Sunday evening—potentially $5-20+ per barrel initially, with Barclays forecasting a test of $100 if disruptions persist. In worst-case scenarios involving prolonged closure or attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure, prices could surge to $120-150+ per barrel, per estimates from Kpler, Rapidan Energy, and others. Even partial enforcement—say, 20-30% flow reduction via harassment—could add substantial war-risk premiums.
