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This report examines the events, motivations, and consequences of the ongoing campaign.
Months of careful planning preceded the February 28 offensive. Following the twelve-day conflict of June 2025 — during which Israeli and U.S. forces struck and significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear infrastructure — intelligence agencies continued to monitor Iran’s efforts to rebuild missile capabilities and stockpile enriched uranium.
By late 2025, Israeli military intelligence concluded that Iran was nearing a nuclear capability that would be increasingly difficult to counter. Compounding these concerns, a popular uprising erupted in Iran in January 2026, only to be violently suppressed by the government. For Israeli planners, this represented a rare strategic opportunity: Iran was internally weakened, and its regional influence appeared temporarily diminished.
